Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine as a continuous-time Markov process
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17721/1812-5409.2026/1.4Keywords:
Survival models, multiple decrements, Markov models, stochastic process, simulationAbstract
Ukraine remains among the countries with the highest rates of HIV/AIDS spread globally. In this study, we fit a continuous-time Markov model to describe the progression of HIV to AIDS and ultimately to death for an individual and so obtain the means to model the epidemic on the global level. Our analysis reconstructs the information lost due left- and interval-censorship of empirical data. Our methodology integrates survival analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Monte Carlo simulation, and the construction of confidence intervals. The results provide insights into the dynamics of the epidemic in Ukraine and can further be used in actuarial research of HIV/AIDS as an insurance risk.
Pages of the article in the issue: 27 - 33
Language of the article: English
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Copyright (c) 2026 Yehor Okuniev, Olga Vasylyk
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